UAAP S72 Final Four Preview: ADMU vs UST

(1) Ateneo de Manila Blue Eagles
Record: 13-1

How they got there: The Blue Eagles stuck to what got them a championship last season: defense. They were the best defensive team this season, holding opponents to an average of only 64 points per game, while forcing opponents to shoot only 34.63% from the field. Two things might make them better than last season’s Chris Tiu-led championship team though: first, a deeper bench full of players that can explode for big games at any moment; and second, a sense of resiliency that allows Ateneo to absorb what would be knock-out runs for any other team, before answering back with a scoring binge of their own.

Team weakness: A solitary loss to the UP Fighting Maroons exhibits Ateneo’s weakness: in the pivotal fourth quarter, UP was able to shoot a staggering 89% from the field, on route to the W. For all of their defensive acumen, opponents will usually get the chance to unleash a flurry of baskets while the Ateneo juggernaut inexplicably grinds to a halt. Equally perplexing is the fact that this seems to happen often against the starting five of Coach Black, necessitating their bench to bail out the starters. Sure, as mentioned above, the Blue Eagles are usually able to right the ship and put the clamps back down but they can’t allow such lapses now that they’re in the post season.

Key cog: Eric Salamat – at this point last season, Salamat was cooling down. He was basically a non-factor in the waning moments of Season 71. This year though, he’s been the leading scorer for the team down the stretch, averaging 20 points in their last three outings. He’s literally been a do-it-all wunderkind, scoring both from 3-point range and from his daredevil slashes, orchestrating the offense, and playing the passing lanes. Plus, he’s a genius at getting his side of the arena fired up with his patent-pending salute to the crowd after nifty plays.

Under the radar: Jai Reyes – sometimes, it’s not how about how many shots you make, but when you make shots, and that’s definitely the case for Ateneo’s floor general. He only averages 2.7 field goals made each game, but those are shots (usually triples) that are daggers to the opponent. They either quell opponents’ runs or kick-start an Ateneo comeback. Sooner or later, teams will learn not to leave him open, but until then, he’s more than willing to take the big shot.

Must step-up: Kirk Long – fans want to see more of the Kirk Long who single-handedly sniped the UST Growling Tigers to a loss in the second round, when he went 5 for 6 from beyond the arc. True, the reason why he’s in the starting five is because he’s a lockdown defender, but on the offensive end, teams are leaving him open while they double Rabeh Al-Hussaini, confident in the knowledge that, aside from that UST game, he’s been miserable from long range.

VERSUS

(4) University of Santo Tomas Growling Tigers
Record: 6-8

How they got there: Many thought the graduation of center Jervy Cruz last season would be the death knell for the Tigers and would result in a woeful season. Instead, Coach Pido Jarencio transformed this team’s identity from an inside-outside half-court offense, to a run and gun, Euroball style of play. This has allowed the team to compensate for their lack of a post game by going for the fast break at almost every opportunity. That said, the Tigers actually backed themselves into this Final Four spot as they lost their last three games and were nearly forced into a playoff against the DLSU Green Archers. To further underscore the point, their 6-8 win-loss record is the worst record a Final Four team has ever possessed.

Team weakness: The Tigers have only a single win versus the other four Final Four teams in six attempts this season, and the major reason for this has been their inability to stop the other teams from scoring. They have Chris Camus, who averages 1.5 blocks per game, but he’s the only real post defender, and so he’s prone to foul trouble. Season 72 MVP Dylan Ababou and Khasim Mirza are above-average defenders, but when up against talented scorers, they tire easily, and the fatigue carries over onto the offensive end, resulting in a lack of lift to their jump shots late in the game. That wouldn’t be so bad if they had other options, but aside from rookie Jeric Teng, no one else on the team averages more than 8 points.

Key cog: Dylan Ababou – Ababou has literally been carrying the cudgels for his team, so no wonder he’s the MVP of the season. All the other teams know that the he is UST’s first and best option on offense, and so opponents’ gameplan exclusively revolves around trying to stop him, which makes the fact that he’s still averaging 18.9 points an impressive feat. That said, it’s about time to open up other aspects of his game because he can’t keep this pace up and expect it to pay dividends. Coach Jarencio ought to look into using Ababou more as a decoy, to set up his teammates when the double team arrives. And as talented as he is, when the game is on the line, there is no way he’s going to be making the shot (at least not at a high percentage anyway) versus three defenders draped on him.

Under the radar: Allein Maliksi – Call it a coincidence, but UST has lost their last three games, all of which were missed by Maliksi due to illness. Coming off the bench, Maliksi is an offensive spark plug, a decent shooter, and a great rebounder for his size. Without him, UST has been forced to shorten their rotation and give minutes to non-contributors like Aljohn Ungria and Eduardo Aytona. If UST gets him back during the Final Four, there will be less pressure on Ababou and Mirza to score and the Tigers will be able to keep the floor spread out when the bench players come in.

Must step-up: Jeric Teng – Analysts used to rave about Teng’s ability to drive into the lane and finish strong, getting the bucket and the foul. In the last four games though, he’s fallen in love with his jump shots, and they haven’t been going in (8 of 42 from the field, 2 of 20 from 3-point land). True, part of it is most likely because UST has been finding itself staring at large deficits, but he’s got to let go and instead embrace the unconventional three-point play, as he’s been making free throws at a highly effective 78.69% rate.  

UAAP S72 Final Four Preview: UE vs FEU

(2) Far Eastern University Tamaraws
Record: 11-3

How they got there: Once again a favorite preseason pick to win it all, the Tamaraws have not, for the most part, disappointed. Led by Smart-Gilas player Aldrech Ramos, the team was bolstered by stand-out rookies RR Garcia and Pipo Noundou, who gave FEU depth similar to what they had last season before the Macmac Baracael tragedy. And yet, something was always “off” with this team, despite some sterling defense. A string of near-losses kept people doubting this team’s championship mettle, despite coming close to wresting the number one seed from Ateneo. The real tragedy was the sudden departure of star point guard Mark Barroca from the squad, scant days to go before their match-up versus UE. No doubt, this is a very talented team, but intangibles-wise, they’re still lacking that little something to put them over the top.

Team weakness: Perhaps out of all the teams in the Final Four, it’s FEU coach Glen Capacio who seems to be the most lost when it comes to his personnel. The team has used a grand total of 12 starting line-ups in just 14 games and the player rotation has been head-scratch inducing to say the least. Capacio routinely benches “hot” players and has gone out of his way to give starting sports and extended minutes to non-productive players like Casey Caluag and Chris Exciminiano. Furthermore, he seemed to be the root of Mark Barroca’s three-game slump, which started when he decided to bring the Smart Gilas leader off the bench for two games. Now he won’t a veteran floor general on the court to contend for the championship. It’s time for him to buckle down and give minutes to those who deserve it on the court.

Key cog: Aldrech Ramos – This guy came out of the Smart Gilas team fired-up, with a more confident post game and a fiery desire to grab boards. He’s done particularly well with the latter, picking up double-digit rebounds in all but 3 games, and he’s swatting shots now with proper timing instead of just jumping up aimlessly, two reasons why he ought to be strongly considered for defensive player of the year. If Ramos can set the tone on both ends of the court, his teammates will undoubtedly feed off his energy, and that might result in a tighter team defense when they need it the most. He still hasn’t reached go-to guy status yet, but the Final Four is a great time for him to step into such a role.

Under the radar: Pipo Noundou – Many people thought Noundou would be a lot like Robert Kave, who left the team mid-season last year, an energetic guy off the bench who could block shots and hustle. Instead, Noundou has become a pivotal player down low, yes, grabbing rebounds, but also making plays in the shaded lane, where other FEU big men would be more comfortable firing mid-range jumpers.  In the two games he’s sat out, FEU has lost both by a combined three points, and Noundou was definitely missed by the Tams, who needed to give Ramos and Cervantes extended minutes to compensate. If he can’t come back healthy during the Final Four, FEU’s struggle will likely continue.

Must step-up: JR Cawaling – The forgotten Smart Gilas player, Cawaling has been overshadowed by his more successful teammates Barroca and Ramos. However, he only has himself to blame, thanks to his habit of disappearing in key games. Against the other three teams in the Final Four, he averages 7.17 points, a full field goal lower than his average against the bottom feeders (9.6 points). Although he’s been converting at a high rate (46% for a small forward), he’s definitely not aggressive and at times seems to be sleepwalking through the game. Last season, he was the top scorer in their loss versus DLSU in the Final Four. He may need to be that guy again if the Tams hope to get over the hump and return to the Championship round.

VERSUS

(3) University of the East Red Warriors
Record: 10-4

How they got there: The hottest team in the league not named “Ateneo,” UE has won six straight games, with their only loss in the second round coming from the aforementioned the Blue Eagles. An interesting blend of the FEU Tamaraws and the UST Growling Tigers, UE also loves to run up and down the court and score. At the same time though, they have the great interior combo of Elmer Espiritu and Pari Llagas, who control the boards and the paint with machine-like efficiency. Finally, they have the most explosive player in the UAAP right now, Paul Lee, who is a threat to put up a triple-double every game. Rookie head coach Lawrence Tiongson has definitely done a good job with his dynamic, no-set-plays offense, constantly keeping opposing coaches guessing. A few seasons ago, this team went undefeated before failing to show up in the Finals. This season though, it seems like UE is peaking at the right time.

Team weakness: UE tries to hide the fact that they’ve only really got five players (Llagas, Espiritu, Lee, Lingganay, Acuna) who can score consistently by throwing out a league-high 13 different starting line-ups and moving players on and off the court at almost every dead ball situation, but a canny defense-oriented coach knows that you just need to stop one of the two big men and then one of the guards, and the game has been won. True, that is a bit easier said than done, but UE’s got to find consistent bench production soon, given their uptempo style of play, and the defensive scrutiny their stars are sure to attract come Final Four.

Key cog: Elmer Espiritu – It’s his last season and Espiritu means to go out with a bang. This guy has come a long way from just being a high jumper. Espiritu is now the best shot blocker in the league, and he can now play with you in the post, whether backing down or facing up, and has three-point range to boot. Toss in a good handle to beat full-court presses, and you have a player who ought to have gotten some MVP attention. While it’s true that it is teammate Lee who will get the first look in a do-or-die situation, Espiritu is a more than capable second option.

Under the radar: Rudy Lingganay – Many predicted that UE would have a hard time this season due to the preseason injury that befell point guard and deadeye shooter James Martinez, but Lingganay has done a remarkable job in his absence. Lingganay shoots just a shade under 40% from the field and from three-point land, meaning he’s a constant threat on the floor. He’s also a great rebounder for his position, norming 5.3, but getting as many as 10 in one game versus UST. Truth is, one wonders why Tiongson doesn’t play him longer, as he’s a great compliment to UE’s big three. Maybe the Final Four is his chance to shine?

Must step-up: Val Acuna – Acuna had a breakout game against Ateneo in the first round, where he was a one-machine show from downtown, finishing with 21 points. Since then though, he’s been marked by other teams and his shooting dipped to nearly 30% from the field. He’s tried to make up for it by driving to the hole more, but his shots have rarely gone in. Truth is, Acuna is a sniper at heart, and if UE is to go far, he’ll need his three-point shot to be online. He managed to score 17 against UP and 20 versus UST in the last three games of the season, with four treys in both games, and if he can carry that over to the Final Four then the Red Warriors might run roughshod over the competition. 

UAAP Preview: FEU versus ADMU, Round 2 (Sept. 12)

What Happened in Round 1?
– Ateneo led over FEU, 50 – 29 at the end of the first half, and Ateneo stayed ahead for a 63-59 final score.

Key Stats
– Call it a mirror match because that’s what this was almost. Ateneo shot 36.51% from the field while FEU shot 34.29%, Ateneo shot 71.43% from the charity stripe while FEU shot 70%, both teams had 42 rebounds, Ateneo had 11 assists, FEU had 12, Ateneo turned the ball over 11 times, FEU turned it over 10 times
– Ateneo was the more aggressive team however, drawing 21 fouls while being called for only 12. Key Tamaraws Riel Cervantes and Mark Barroca both finished with 4 fouls each.
– Ateneo was able to convert more triples at a better rate than FEU. The Eagles shot 7 for 18 from beyond the arc while FEU only had 4 of 17.

ADMU Dramatis Personae
– The tag team of Rabeh Al-Hussaini and Nonoy Baclao got together and combined for 18 points (all Al-Hussaini’s), 19 rebounds, 3 assists, 1 steal and 5 blocks (all Baclao’s). Not only that, they only had 2 turnovers total, and got whistled for only 2 fouls apiece.
– That first round game was won by the bench. Nico Salva, Ryan Buenafe, and Eman Monfort played 51 minutes total and chipped in 27 points, as well as many hustle plays.

FEU Dramatis Personae
– Aldrech Ramos flexed his interior might as he still got 15 points, 14 rebounds and 4 blocks despite the presence of the Blue Eagle twin towers.
– FEU’s rookie duo of RR Garcia and Pipo Noundou stole the show with 17 points and 10 boards combined. Their presence on the court also meant that FEU could survive with the fouls on some of the more veteran Tamaraws.

What’s Now at Stake
– FEU needs to win by five or more points to get the number one spot and a match-up versus the slumping UST Tigers, who enter with the worst record ever to make the Final Four.

Why Ateneo will win
– Superior coaching, thanks to Norman Black. While other coaches are just pure tacticians, and others are just great motivators, Coach Black is both. Not only will he have prepared his team for this game, I bet he’s also playing up the fact that this game could have been losable had the team not mailed in their first round game against UP. FEU’s Glenn Capacio, on the other hand, has been tinkering with his starting line-up all season, and his latest move, sending veteran point guard Mark Barroca to the bench, may have cost him his best player.
– Weapons of mass destruction. If you’re going up against ADMU, you have to prepare for Al-Hussaini down low. You have to box out properly against Baclao. You have to take care of the ball versus Eric Salamat and stop him from slashing into the lane on offense. If Ateneo were any other team, it would stop there, but this IS Ateneo, so you also have to shut down Jai Reyes from beyond the arc, prevent Buenafe from having an all-around game, discourage Salva from taking that mid-range jumper, then you have to make sure Kirk Long doesn’t get hot, or Monfort, heck even Justin Chua could have a big game…
– Health. Not only is Nonoy Baclao rested up and ready to go, FEU will reportedly be missing the services of Pipo Noundou. That’s 9.5 points and 7.2 rebounds they’ll have to get from someone else.

Why FEU can win
– These are desperate times for FEU. A win means playing UST, whom the Tams destroyed twice this season. A loss would mean playing against UE, who spanked them in a 12-point loss and who have been riding a 6-game winning streak. Let’s put it this way, while Ateneo has no problems going up against the Red Warriors (they were the only team to beat them twice this season), FEU is deathly scared of Paul Lee and co., and are no doubt thankful they’ll have the twice to beat advantage. No doubt, this will factor into the Tams’ motivation
– RR Garcia is a beast. This quote-unquote rookie has been averaging 20 points, 1.3 rebounds, 2 assists and 1.3 steals to only 1.7 turnovers in the last three games. Ateneo will need to hope Reyes or Salamat will be able to shut him down as he’s been shooting a scorching 51 percent from the field in those games.
– Mark Barroca’s due for a breakout game. In his last two games he’s only contributed a paltry 9 points, 4.5 rebounds and 1 assist to 4 turnovers, and that includes an overtime game versus La Salle, who had no point guards who could supposedly stop him. He’s obviously unhappy about being benched, and Coach Capacio ought to do the smart thing and start the guy.

Prediction
– Ateneo by under 10 points. Everything’s rolling for the Blue Eagles while the Tams came close to losing to two inferior (AdU and DLSU) teams. Expect an early lead by the Eagles, which FEU will repeatedly try to chip away at, but Ateneo will still come out on top in the end.

The Triangle Offensive – Episode 12

It’s the penultimate week in the UAAP! Who’s on the brink of making the Final Four and who’s out to play spoiler? Find out in this podcast!

Download the Triangle Offensive podcast here!

This episode samples from “Attention Please” by Caroline Spine, “Times Like These” by the Foo Fighters and “My Immortal” by Piano Tribute to Evanescence. If you are the copyright holder of any of those materials and wish to have it removed, please say so

Optimism?

This isn’t kicking someone when they’re down, this is a reality check.

With their season practically over (there is a slim, slim chance that they’ll force a quotient check, or is that playoff? UAAP rules are so labyrinthine), many Green Archers fans are already looking to next season with green and white glasses. The word “championship” is already being bandied about by these gangrene-infested fans, and if it doesn’t happen, well rest assured, the fact that they’ll be the hosting school next season will “help” make it happen.

Here’s their line of thinking: next season, they’ll get to exile players like James Mangahas, Bader Malabes, Ferdinand and Simon Atkins to Team B, freeing up playing time for their “star” rookies like Sam Marata, Joel Tolentino, Arvie Bringas, and Yutien Andrada. Coupled with the return of LA Revilla, sophomore Joshua Webb, and the graduations of “only” Hyram Bagatsing and Kish Co, plus whoever they have in the pipeline (supposedly a few big men), anything less than a championship would be utter disappointment.

DLSU fans, get ready to be disappointed.

1) Who’s your coach?

Everyone seems to agree that Franz Pumaren will not be back next season as he will be running for congress. This most likely means that the team will be turned over to his brother, Dindo Pumaren. That is not a good thing.

Dindo is a choker par excellance. Don’t believe me? Ever since he was headcoach in UE, every team that ended up winning the championship did it by beating his Red Warriors in the Final Four or in the Finals. They were literally “the team to beat.”

Don’t get me wrong, Dindo’s great at developing talent, but he’s an awful in-game coach. What sticks out the most was a time out last season when he literally could not come up with a play, drawing and redrawing x’s and o’s on his whiteboard before finally throwing in the towel and saying “play hard.”

Toss in the fact that there’s bound to be resentment among Franz’s assistant coaches for being looked over for this clown. True, neither Tonichi Yturri nor Jack Santiago are genius coaches, in fact, they’re downright awful, Yturri with the CSB Blazers and Santiago who had to take over while Franz was in Serbia last season, but they’re going to feel like they deserve the job, and not this clear case of nepotism.

Let’s briefly look at the possibility that Franz comes back. As mentioned, most of the rumored DLSU recruits are big men, and Franz is an awful big man coach, see Arvie Bringas for proof. Not only did it take him almost 11 games before he realized that more minutes should be given to his rookies rather than his veterans this season, this is also the same coach whom Norman Black said runs the exact same plays over and over each year, and whose press has become steadily less effective, and can you imagine how effective it’ll be next season with all those big men? Remember, this is the guy who thought it’d be a brilliant idea to make Bader Malabes a point guard, allowed Ferdinand to start over and over despite him not doing anything, and who only used Joel Tolentino for more than 6 minutes after Simon Atkins, another person he loathed despite him being the best point guard on the team, went down with a season-ending injury. In other words, look people, you hate the veterans so much, you have to hate the person who stuck them out there in the first place, and that’s Franz Pumaren.

2) Next year will be like this year, only newer

DLSU went into this season with a core of “veterans,” made of sophomores and juniors, along with a bumper crop of rookies.

DLSU will go into next season with a core of “veterans,” made of sophomores and juniors, along with a bumper crop of rookies.

Uh oh.

The fact of the matter is, there probably hasn’t been a team that has won a championship without a key veteran, either a star player or an extremely good role player, and DLSU has neither.

If it is true that this year’s vets will be shipped off to Team B, then this team will be devoid of players who saw key minutes during the last time La Salle was in the Final Four. And if you need a preview of what could happen, check out yesterday’s game versus FEU, a team that’s dripping with Final Four experience. DLSU might keep things close, but in the end, they’ll collapse in the worst possible way.

3) Change of pace

More big men means less running, less pressing, or in other words, less of the things that made DLSU, DLSU.

Changing playing styles is rarely easy. The success stories, like UST this season, were because they went from a rigid, structured offense to a more run and gun, freewheeling system. Going in reverse, from run and gun to set plays, is the sort of thing that takes seasons to learn. If you want to know how hard it is, ask the Phoenix Suns how it was to play under Terry Porter.

Then there’s the fact that such an offense needs a great point guard or a couple of above-average ball handlers to get the ball to where it needs to be at the right time.

Squeal all you want about LA Revilla and Joel Tolentino, but neither seem the type to run an offensive set. Both seem more likely to bring the ball down, dribble, and then chuck the ball when they see the shot clock trickle down to 8.

I’ve heard rumors that they’re targeting FEU-FERN Baby Tamaraw DLSZ senior Gwynne Capacio, the son of FEU coach Glen Capacio. Ignoring the fact that this kid’s a scorer on a bad team, do they really think his dad will allow him to go to a rival school while he’s an active coach?

4) Overrated

Many killed Peejay Barua for his awful shooting this season. Aside from the UST game when he hit clutch triples in round one, and two good shooting games versus UP and ADMU in round two (which they both lost), a peek at his shooting percentages reveals numbers like:

3/8 (UE R1), 2/9 (FEU R1), 2/13 (UP R1), 1/7 (NU R1), 1/6 (ADMU R1), 1/13 (UE R2), 1/9 (FEU R2)

The much-hyped Sam Marata’s numbers from yesterday’s game: 3/11, including the two, in hindsight, extremely lucky, triples he hit to send the game into overtime.

Joshua Webb’s an extremely talented slasher, but his basketball fundamentals are equally poor. He even needed to, according to DLSU’s worst courtside reporter ever yesterday, ask the referees what a travel is and isn’t. Ladies and gentlemen, your supposed star player!

Joel Tolentino seems to be crafted from the same mold as Hyram Bagatsing. The problem is that Bagatsing’s a shooting guard who’s been converted into a tall point guard, while Tolentino’s a shooting guard in a point guard’s body.

Wow, whatever happened to Arvie Bringas? Talk about a career that’s been ruined; he was supposed to be the next great big man of his generation. Instead, he’s a shooting guard in a power forward’s body. His rebounding numbers stink, and they’re already inflated because during those few times he’s tried to go inside, he inevitably misses a lay-up, catches his own miss, and then gets stuffed by a shot blocker. And speaking of shot blockers, this guy was supposed to be a shot blocker. Ateneans wanted him to be Nonoy Baclao 2.0 for crying out loud! Instead, he’s tallied 2 blocks this entire season, a sharp contrast to 23 triple attempts. Maybe Dindo can save him, although I think Franz has already corrupted him into being an arrogant shmuck who celebrates after hitting a shot despite his team being down 18.

Andrada needs a sandwich, or fifty. I find it hilarious how The Green Mind was raving about his excellent work on Aldrech Ramos yesterday.

Ramos – 10 points on 4/8 shooting (2/2 from the line), 19 rebounds
Andrada – 7 points on 3/5 shooting (1/2 from the line), 6 rebounds

Wow, good thing Andrada was on him! He would have grabbed 50 rebounds had it not been for the ugliest player in the UAAP!

5) Some of the worst fans in the UAAP

Barely a game after people were extolling the virtues of James Mangahas, the Gangrene are now ripping him to shreds, while PJ Barua, for some strange reason, always gets overlooked (I don’t care if you think he’s trying, he’s not making shots!).

Call them spoiled, but boy, if you guys get off to a losing streak, don’t expect a crowd to support you during your next game. Then expect the alumni to rip you a new one when they really ought to be ripping the coach for sticking you in there in the first place. Then expect calls to be dropped to Team B, along with the other former Archers whom everyone loved at one point, before unceremoniously being dumped into Green Siberia.

Oh well, if ever you are in need of inspiring thoughts, there’s the Archer Pride Twitter to pick you up when you’re down! (“Just when it’s darkest, that’s when we shine. We are the light, we are the truth, WE ARE LA SALLE!”)

Hanging by a Moment – DLSU/FEU Round 2 Preview (S72)

DLSU beat UST 68-64 last Thursday. That flicker of hope has been strengthened a bit, but with only a single day of rest, they’re now going to face the FEU Tamaraws today.

What Happened in Round 2 Versus UST?
– DLSU took control early in the game, 42 – 30. Jeric Teng drew his second foul early in the first quarter, followed by Dylan Ababou getting his third early in the second. Despite this, UST uncorked 6 straight points to cut a DLSU lead down to just 12, ending the second quarter on a roll.
– Said roll continued in the third, when UST held DLSU to just 6 points.
– In the fourth, the lead swung wildly back and forth. The turning point was Khasim Mirza fouling out; from then on, UST was sent back-peddling and couldn’t force overtime.
– UST, it must be noted, played without Allein Maliksi, who averages 8 points and 4 rebounds. The Growling Tigers were forced to give extended minutes to Clark Bautista (15 mins, 1 for 5, 5 points) and Aljohn Ungria (5 mins, nothing contributed except a missed shot attempt and a foul).

What Did DLSU Do Right?
– Player rotation. DLSU found a combination of players that worked and stuck to them, giving lots of minutes to Maui Villanueva, Kish Co, Sam Marata, Hyram Bagatsing and Joseph Tolentino
– Veteran presence. Finally, James Mangahas stepped into that role of canny veteran. He didn’t play in the first half, but when Coach Franz played him in the second, he practically won the game by himself with his 15 points on 50% shooting (2 of 4 from 3pt).

How Did DLSU Nearly Lose the Game?
– Awful at the line. 12 for 26 from the free throw line. Down the stretch, I’m surprised UST didn’t go to hack-an-Archer, given how only Mangahas and Tolentino were hitting them with some sort of rhythm.

What Did UST Do Wrong?
– Missing the broadside of a barn. How does a run and gun team hit only 15 shots (23.81% of 63 shots)? Answer: through some horrible combination of good defense and stupid shot selection.
– Always Ababou. In crunchtime, the ball will only go into the hands of Dylan Ababou and everyone knows this. With a chance to tie or take the lead on the second to the last play, UST sets a play for…Dylan Ababou, who predictably gets triple-teamed. C’mon Pido, why not use him as a decoy for Jeric Fortuna or Teng?

How Did UST Nearly Win the Game?
– Living on the line. The exact opposite of DLSU, UST went 31 for 36 from the charity stripe, winning the third thanks to repeated trips to the line (although it must be pointed out – if Jeric Teng had gone perfect from the line, or if Ababou had not spit his charities down the stretch, they might have swung the game to their side)

+++

Let’s now turn our attention to today’s FEU game.

What Happened in Round 1?
– FEU and DLSU were tight in the first quarter, 14 to 12, but FEU owned the second, 22 to 12, and it was all over, bar the shouting, from then on.

Key Stats
– FEU held the Archers to just 14 of 61 shooting, or 22.95%, while they themselves shot 40.32%.
– The Tams also shut down the painted lane with 8 shot blocks to 0 Archer rejections.
– 4 Tamaraws, Cawaling, Barroca, Garcia and Cervantes, finished with double digit scoring, while DLSU had James Mangahas top-scoring with 8.

What’s Now at Stake
– DLSU needs to win to keep up their hopes for a Final Four slot. A win, plus a victory over NU, means UST would have to sweep their remaining games. or face a quotient check that the Tigers would lose (having dropped both games to the Archers)
– FEU needs to win because if they lose this one, and drop the game to Ateneo, and if UE wins their last two versus UST and Adamson, they’d force a playoff for the #2 seed and the twice to beat advantage

How DLSU Can Win
– Outrebound the Tams. This is a tall order, but if the Archers can gang-rebound the misses and get second chance opportunities, or defensive boards that they can convert into fast break opportunities, then that’s more points for DLSU and less points for FEU.
– Win the Freethrow Battle. FEU is equally erratic from the freethrow line, so if DLSU can get there more, and convert at a higher clip, again, that’s easy points for the Archers.

How FEU Can Win
– Win the Individual Match-ups. At every position, FEU’s got superior players that DLSU simply cannot handle. Barroca and Garcia have to be aggressive and hit open jumpers, while the big men have to own the paint. The only chink in the armor of FEU is Coach Capacio’s fondness of playing scrubs like Casey Caluag and MC Vinluan. If Capacio gives major minutes to people like Garcia and Cervantes instead, it’s hard to see the Tams get upset.
– Win Early. A DLSU team with confidence is a deadly thing to face. FEU will need to get off to an early lead and keep it, going into the second half. That should be more than enough to break the Green Archer morale. From then on, it’s just a matter of playing your starters more down the stretch to really carve out a large lead and prevent any thoughts of a DLSU rally.

Prediction
– FEU by 12-16 points. 

UAAP Preview: UST versus DLSU, Round 2 (Sept. 3)

What Happened in Round 1?
UST led over DLSU, 45 – 37 at the half, 72-60 at the end of the third quarter.
DLSU then uncorked a 10-22 fourth quarter, knotting the game and sending it into overtime.
In the second overtime, UST could only score 2 points to DLSU’s 11.

Key Stats
UST, normally a decent rebounding team, got 39 boards to DLSU’s 47.
UST was also out-assisted by DLSU. The Tigers had 13 dimes to the Archers’ 22.
Coming off the bench, Jeric Teng (18 points, 7 rebounds, 4 steals) and Chris Camus (11 points, 5 rebounds, 1 steal, 1 bock) both fouled out in the fourth quarter. Only 1 DLSU player, Kish Co, had 4 fouls.
Connected to that, DLSU had 45 attempts at the line, to UST’s 34 (although UST converted them at a higher clip, but not by much, 58 to 55%)

UST Dramatis Personae
– King Tiger Dylan Ababou was a one-man show down the stretch, and the burden of carrying the team on his shoulders clearly showed. UST would go to him on almost every possession in the fourth and the two overtimes (he played 43 minutes out of a possible 50) and by then, he was getting enough lift from his legs and his shots all fell short. He would finish with 19 points on 8 of 22 shooting, 11 rebounds, an assist and a block, and a solitary triple.
– Jeric Fortuna was the other played who played major minutes, 45, in fact, but he was much less effective than Ababou. Fortuna only had 10 points (3/9 FG, 2/4 3PT), while dishing out 5 assists and swiping the ball 5 times. Those are decent numbers, but he was basically a non-factor late in the game.
– Speaking of non-factors, Khasim Mirza, who reportedly played despite a fever or a flu, totaled 38 minutes, finishing with 12 points on 3 of 12 shooting, no triples, 6 rebounds, 3 assists and 3 steals.

DLSU Dramatis Personae
– Call it the highlight of Arvie Bringas’ rookie campaign why don’t you? The much-hyped Bringas had a monstrous 21 points on 7 of 10 shooting, 1 of 2 from beyond the arc, 6 of 12 from the charity stripe, and 8 rebounds. Bringas of course hit a big three to help send the game into overtime.
– Call it also the best game from the DLSU veterans. James Mangahas had 18 points, his highest of the season, and 9 rebounds. Bader Malabes had 10 points (albeit on 2 of 9 shooting), 5 rebounds, and 7 assists, as he took over playmaking duties from Simon Atkins, who couldn’t hit the broadside of a barn. Finally, PJ Barua broke out of a long shooting slump as he hit two triples bridging the first and second overtime.

What’s Now at Stake
– If UST wins this, it’s goodbye DLSU. It’s that simple.

How UST Can Win
– Beat the press. Versus the La Salle press (perhaps the best manifestation of the press the entire season), UST would launch several inbound passes across the length of the court. Now, UE did variations of this in last Saturday’s win, but UST’s passes would typically fall right into an Archer’s hands. One thing they should attempt is having Khasim Mirza bring up the ball, as Fortuna is way too, er, green to handle bringing up the ball.
– Everything counts in large amounts. Not only does ATM (Ababou, Teng, Mirza) need to score big, they’ll need contributions to the tune of 10 or more points from all of their major supporting players, namely Fortuna, Bautista, Camus and Maliksi. If UST can open up a scoring barrage, they’ll most likely break DLSU’s spirit and discourage any rally attempts. It can’t be in just one quarter either, it’s got to be a sustained offensive effort.

How DLSU Can Win
– Unleash the press again. If UST insists on letting its guards bring up the ball, punish them for doing so by hounding them relentlessly from inbounds pass until they cross the half court line. If the Tigers resort to having Ababou bring down the ball, then that’s great as well, as it fatigues UST’s marquee player.
– Get out if you’re not scoring. Coach Franz Pumaren cannot stick to any stupid notions of “this player’s a veteran” or “this player did well in practice.” If you’re not making any shots, you’re out, so take note Mangahas, Malabes, Barua and Bringas. Pumaren needs guys to put points on the board to keep pace with the UST offensive machine and so he cannot leave any liabilities on the court.
– Attack the rim. If La Salle can get Chris Camus to foul out again, that opens up the interior for further slashing attempts and offensive rebounds, as Camus is really the only true rebounder/shot blocker on this team. If they can get Ababou into foul trouble, then so much the better.

Prediction
– UST by single digits. DLSU had a lot of things going right in their first round game, and they still needed two overtimes in the end. Expect the Archers to come out with intensity, but the sort of intensity that leads to sloppy play.

 

The Triangle Offensive – Episode 11

Download episode 11 of the Triangle Offensive!

What are the major storylines heading into the last two weeks of the UAAP Season? Who’s slumping and who’s rallying at the right time? Plus, previews for this week’s games!

We sample from “Indestructible” by Matthew Good Band, “Almost” by Bowling for Soup and “Check Yes Juliet” by We the Kings. If you are the copyright holder of any of these and wish to have your material removed, just say so.

Hindsight is 20/20 – August 24 (The UP/DLSU edition)

One of my oldest friends, Chris, asked me a few questions about UP’s win over La Salle yesterday. How did it happen? Did it mean anything for UP? How does it affect the UP’s Final Four situation?

How did UP win?
– UP gave DLSU a taste of their own medicine, opening the game with a blitzing full-court press that generated turnovers and sloppy shots by an unprepared DLSU team. I previously criticized UP for relying too much on a zone defense, saying that they were not athletic enough to pull off the proper rotations. Based on yesterday’s game, I can say that they are definitely athletic enough press. In fact, it was probably the best execution of the full-court press that I’ve seen in years. UP defenders got up into the grill of DLSU ball handlers, draining precious seconds from the shot clock, and forcing hurried passes with the Maroons could intercept and convert into fast break points.

Why is that significant?
– In their first two wins against ADMU and NU, UP needed a quarter in each game where they shot 89% from the field to go over the top. While I’m not saying both games were flukes (you have to be extremely lucky to hit 89% in one game, let alone two), the simple fact is that you can’t count on shooting an insane percentage from the field each game. To put it into perspective, most coaches are happy if their team notches 45% at the end of a game. This shows the basketball maxim, “offense  wins games, defense wins championships,” which basically can be rewritten as “offense comes and goes, but defense is eternal.” If UP becomes a team that relies heavily on defense to win games, then they’ve got a much better chance of winning than if they were to just cross their fingers and hope their shooters get hot every game.

– Mikee Reyes came to play. Again. I’ve long been hammering at this kid and at Aboy Castro for starting him in all but one of UP’s games. Reyes, who is a rookie and a graduate of La Salle Greenhills, Had some mediocre games in the first part of round one. His averages in the first six games: 2.17 points (31% from the field), 0.83 rebounds, 1 assist, 3 turnovers.

Reyes had a breakout game against UST in round one, scoring 21 points and tallying 7 rebounds and 6 assists in a UP loss. He followed that up with a 14 point, 3 rebound, 3 assist performance against NU to begin round two. Most were skeptical still of his abilities due to the opposition. UST’s run and gun offense is conducive to players having breakout games (Read: Arvie Bringas), and NU is, well, NU. This seemed to be the case as in the rematch against UST, he only got 5 points, 1 rebound and 2 assists.

Against La Salle though, Reyes had 25 points, 5 rebounds and 6 assists. True, he was playing against his alma mater, and he probably had reason to show them up (Read: Joel Tolentino), but it’s looking more and more like this kid is a legit game changer for the Fighting Maroons.

– No panicking. After posting a 10 point first quarter lead, UP endured a series of DLSU rallies that got the Archers into a position to take over, with numerous deadlocks and 1-point La Salle leads. Instead of choking as they normally would, UP instead showed real grit and fought back to regain the lead. In one memorable sequence, at the end of the second quarter, Mikee Reyes, who had been languishing on the bench, hit back to back triples to extend UP’s lead back to five, going into half time.

Another memorable sequence came at the end of the game, with UP up by 2 points and with 17 seconds left. Mikee Reyes splits his charities, leading to a DLSU rebound with a chance to tie, but Mark Lopez forces a turnover, and La Salle has to foul Moriah Gingerich. Fortunately for DLSU, he misses both, but Reyes collars the rebound and bounces the ball out of bounds on a DLSU player. On the resulting inbounds play, UP gets the ball to its best free throw shooter, Martin Reyes, who gets fouled and knocks both down.

In prior circumstances, La Salle would have found a way to force overtime, or even win the game, but not this time.

How did DLSU lose?
– Horrible defense. La Salle gave UP a lay-up line as players like Lopez, Reyes, and Alvin Padilla waltzed into the shaded lane for easy lay-ups. The interior defense was consistently beat, and in those rare moments when a UP slasher found a roadblock, they always managed to kick the ball out for a reset or a perimeter shot. When DLSU switched to a zone defense, UP adjusted by posting Woody Co in the middle of the shaded lane and quickly getting him the ball. A few pump fakes to get the defender into the air and Co would have 2 points.

– Misfiring arrows. La Salle players couldn’t hit the broadside of a barn again. After going 6 of 24 from beyond the arc against Ateneo, La Salle sunk lower into the pit of inaccuracy by shooting 3 of 17, with only three triples coming from PJ Barua. The triple has always been the weapon of choice for La Salle, but in this game, not even rookie marksman Sam Marata could find the right range.

– Veteran’s day. Out of the 200 minutes of playing time, 174 of those minutes were played by La Salle’s veterans. For contrast, in round 2 versus ADMU, the veterans played 159 minutes, and against Adamson, they played 161. This despite DLSU not using Ferdinand and with Simon Atkins sidelined with an injury.

The big question mark was the much-heralded rookie Arvie Bringas, who played only 3 minutes before getting yanked. Equally confusing was Joseph Tolentino, who played 4 minutes before being sent to the bench.

Bringas, who has been drifting more and more to the perimeter lately, could have been sent in and assigned to the post, where he could have had a field day against the smaller UP line-up (allowing him to start taking perimeter shots when Magi Sison came to play). Tolentino on the other hand, is like a mirror image of Mikee Reyes, having gone to high school at UPIS.

Granted, the DLSU veterans did come out to play today (Barua had 18, Mangahas had 15, Malabes had 10, another UPIS grad, Maui Villanueva had 10) but Coach Pumaren really let slip a few opportunities and potential match-up problems in this game.

Hell, if ever there was a time for Ferdinand to do some damage, it should have been this game, against the undersized Kevin Astorga.

Is this a significant win for UP? Isn’t La Salle a sucky team this season?
– Last question first. As early as a few weeks ago, La Salle was being projected to be a Final Four team. They had put together a four game winning streak and had nearly beaten Ateneo in overtime. After a rough start, pundits were saying that the team had finally gelled together and were now ready restore glory to the green and white.

True, we all know now what happened. Prior to this game, La Salle got thrashed three games in a row by birds sporting blue and white. But again, up until last week, many thought they could knock UST out of the running for the last spot in the Final Four.

Now, is this a significant win for the Fighting Maroons? Yes. On the basest level, Green Archer fans were calling UP games, “the cure.” This after a round one win versus the Maroons triggered La Salle’s four game win streak.

Historically, UP has not beaten DLSU since 2005.

On paper, La Salle has the superior team and the superior coach. If the UAAP had a video game and you simulated games between these two teams, I think DLSU would have won 8 out of 10 times.

But it was UP’s intangibles that came to the party and won the game for them. They showed true grit, a commitment to play strong defense, and flat-out wanted this game more than the Green Archers. Put all those together, and this win might not be on the same level as upending the defending champions, but it’s definitely up there.

What now for UP? Can they make the Final Four?
UP’s remaining schedule is FEU, UE, ADMU and AdU.

For me, UP would have had brighter chances if they had beaten UST, the weakest of the current top four teams. Theoretically, if they do sweep their remaining games, they would have an outside shot at perhaps forcing a quotient check to get the number four spot.

It’s still easier said than done. Even if UP plays like the way they played versus La Salle, I don’t think it would be enough to beat FEU. Given how inconsistent UE has been, they might have a shot there. Against ADMU though, you can be sure that Ateneo will be fired up to beat UP by 150 points so that won’t be a gimme. Adamson has really improved too.

If I were to put odds at it happening, I’d keep it low, 10%.

What about for DLSU? Can they make the FInal Four?
DLSU’s remaining schedule is UE, UST, FEU, NU.

Of those games, only NU is the gimme, all the rest are against Final Four teams. UE and FEU demolished the Archers in round one, while UST lost in overtime thanks to a fluke performance by Arvie Bringas.

DLSU needs to win all of these games, like UP, to have a chance to force a quotient check with either UE or UST. Given the state of the DLSU team, I really can’t see them pulling it off, barring a miracle.

Both UE and FEU have imposing frontline players, a match-up nightmare that will give La Salle fits. UST should have won the game, but collapsed and allowed Arvie Bringas to hit three’s he will most likely never make again in his career.

At this point, even NU might give them a run for their money, honestly.

If I were to put odds at it happening, I’d go even lower, 2.5%.

What could UP have done better in that game?
At the end of the first quarter, Coach Aboy Castro put in Arvin Braganza to spell Mikee Reyes. It took six whole minutes of the second quarter before Reyes returned to the floor. By then, La Salle had cut the UP lead down from 10 to 1.

Braganza is a veteran, but his style is radically different from Reyes. Braganza is content to run a half-court set while Reyes will look to push the ball. That means, out of turnovers, Braganza would slow things down, allowing DLSU the chance to transition back from offense to defense, making it harder for UP to score.

In my opinion, Castro should have used Mike Gamboa instead. Gamboa, who is probably as speedy as Reyes, would have kept the tempo high and racked up more transition points for the Maroons. Instead, by going to Braganza, and for an insane amount of time, Castro could have easily given the game away to the Greenies.

I would have also wanted to see him give more minutes to center Magi Sison, who came off the bench. Sison really could have helped a lot in the second half, when La Salle was storming back, thanks to offensive rebounds. True, he had one awful turnover, off an inbounds where he essentially gave the ball away to a La Sallian for a lay-up, but Mikee Reyes had 6 turnovers, and you don’t see Castro sitting him down.

Is UP’s future bright?
Next year will be the last year for Woody Co, Magi Sison, Mark Lopez, Migs de Asis, and Martin Reyes.

Once those guys are gone, UP will need to go on another mass recruitment drive because those five have been providing the bulk of UP’s production.

That basically means that UP’s time is now. They are on the clock, so to speak.

The biggest question is whether or not we’ll finally see some form of player improvement. From year to year, UP’s players have stayed relatively the same. Their numbers have never seen even the slightest of upticks. In other words, what you see in their rookie season, is what you will get over five years.

UP has a handful of promising rookies, namely Mikee Reyes, Alvin Padilla and Carlo Gomez. If any of the three show even the slightest of improvements, coupled with the addition of Fil-Am scoring machine Mike Silungan, and if they continue to work on their full-court press, then UP will be a threat next season.

If they fail to see the Final Four next season though (and I will admit, that was a lot of “if’s”), then barring a great recruitment drive, I really can’t see the Maroons making the FInal Four anytime soon.

 
 

The Sky is Blue and the Ground is Green

Two of my articles ran in today’s Philippine Daily Inquirer, so please check them out!

“‘No yabang’ for the Ateneans” came about from Norman Black’s preaching to his team during a time out during last week’s game versus La Salle.

To contrast, “The Green Gang struggles” takes a look at the other side and what the heck they’re doing wrong.

It’s really interesting how the two teams can be alike, but so different at the same time.

Hilariously, they cut out a section listing the punches, kicks, and finger waving that the La Salle team has committed so far in this season.

The title of this post reflects the original titles I had for the articles.